FRANKFURT/LONDON听–听搁耻蝉蝉颈补听halted听驳补蝉听supplies via a major pipeline to听贰耻谤辞辫别听on Wednesday, intensifying an economic battle between Moscow and Brussels and raising the prospects of recession and听别苍别谤驳测听rationing in some of the region’s richest countries.
The outage for maintenance on Nord Stream 1 means that no听驳补蝉听will flow to Germany between 0100 GMT on Aug. 31 and 0100 GMT on Sept. 3, according to听搁耻蝉蝉颈补n state听别苍别谤驳测听giant Gazprom聽GAZP.MM.听
Data from the Nord Stream 1 operator’s website showed flows at zero for 0400-0500 Central听贰耻谤辞辫别an Time (0200-0300 GMT) on Wednesday.听
European governments fear Moscow could extend the outage in retaliation for Western sanctions imposed on it after its invasion of Ukraine and have accused听搁耻蝉蝉颈补n President Vladimir Putin of using听别苍别谤驳测听supplies as a “weapon of war”. Moscow denies doing this.
Further restrictions to听贰耻谤辞辫别an听驳补蝉听supplies would heighten an听别苍别谤驳测听crunch that has already sent wholesale听驳补蝉听prices soaring over 400% since last August, creating a painful cost-of-living crisis for consumers and businesses and forcing governments to spend billions to ease the burden.听
Unlike last month’s 10-day maintenance for Nord Stream 1, the upcoming work was announced less than two weeks in advance and is being carried out by Gazprom not Nord Stream AG, focusing on the last operating turbine at the station.
Moscow, which slashed supply via Nord Stream 1 to 40% of capacity in June and to 20% in July, blames maintenance issues and sanctions it says prevent the return and installation of equipment.
Gazprom said the latest shutdown is needed to perform maintenance on the pipeline’s only remaining compressor.
Yet聽搁耻蝉蝉颈补听has also cut off supply to Bulgaria, Denmark, Finland, the Netherlands and Poland completely, and reduced flows via other pipelines since launching what Moscow calls its “special military operation” in Ukraine.听
“Given events over recent months, we think the market may disregard Gazprom’s comments and start to consider whether the pipeline may not return to service, or at the very least may (be) delayed for any given reason,” said Biraj Borkhataria, Associate Director of听贰耻谤辞辫别an Research at Royal Bank of Canada.
‘ELEMENT OF SURPRISE’
German Economy Minister Robert Habeck, on a mission to replace听搁耻蝉蝉颈补n听驳补蝉听imports by mid-2024, earlier this month said Nord Stream was “fully operational” and there were no technical issues as claimed by Moscow.
Klaus Mueller, president of Germany’s network regulator, said while a resumption of flows would help Germany’s security of supply, no one was able to say what the consequences would be if flows remained at zero.听
Europe‘s largest economy is making better progress than expected in filling its听驳补蝉听storage facilities, but it’s not enough to get the country through winter, he said.
The reduced flows via Nord Stream have complicated efforts across听贰耻谤辞辫别听to fill up vital听驳补蝉听storage facilities, a key strategic goal to make it through the winter months, when governments fear聽搁耻蝉蝉颈补听may听丑补濒迟听flows altogether.
“It is something of a miracle that听驳补蝉听filling levels in Germany have continued to rise nonetheless,” Commerzbank analysts wrote, adding Germany had so far been successful at buying sufficient volumes at higher prices elsewhere.
In the meantime, however, some听贰耻谤辞辫别ans are voluntarily cutting their听别苍别谤驳测听consumption, including limiting their use of electrical appliances and showering at work to save money while companies are bracing for possible rationing.听
At 83.26%, Germany is already within reach of an 85% target for its national听驳补蝉听storage tanks by Oct. 1, but it has warned reaching 95% by Nov. 1 would be a stretch unless companies and households drastically cut consumption.
For the听贰耻谤辞辫别an Union as a whole, the current storage level is 79.94%, just short of an 80% target by Oct. 1, when the continent’s heating season starts.
Analysts at Goldman Sachs said their base case assumption was that this outage would not be extended.
“If it did, there would be no more element of surprise and reduced revenues, while low (Nord Stream 1) flows and the occasional drop to zero have the potential to keep market volatility and political pressure on听贰耻谤辞辫别听higher,” they said. – Reuters
