SHANGHAI 鈥 China鈥檚 refusal to accept requests for deeper carbon emissions cuts during recent visits from the top climate envoys of the United States and Britain may undermine progress at the upcoming global climate summit in Glasgow in November, experts say.听听
China rebuffed US envoy John Kerry鈥檚 appeal to strengthen its emissions goals ahead of the COP26 summit by saying climate could not be separated from the wider breakdown in the countries鈥 relationship.听听
This shift in China鈥檚 tone on climate relations between the world鈥檚 two biggest greenhouse gas emitters has sapped momentum for the Glasgow talks and contrasts with the cooperation between the two countries in 2015 that paved the way for the landmark Paris climate agreement.听听
China no longer feels obliged to consider requests for deeper carbon cuts after former President Donald J. Trump rejected US climate change commitments, most notably by withdrawing from the Paris accord, especially after relations between the two countries deteriorated during Trump鈥檚 term over trade, human rights and geopolitical issues, experts say.听听
China and the US still have an understanding on climate issues but 鈥渢he bigger problem now is the difference in the political positions of the two sides,鈥 said Zou Ji, the president of Energy Foundation China who was part of China鈥檚 delegation at the 2015 Paris talks.听听
鈥淭he balance of power and influence of the two sides has changed.鈥澨听
The United States says China, the world鈥檚 biggest greenhouse gas emitter, has not done enough despite pledging to bring emissions to 鈥渘et zero鈥 by 2060. They want China to pledge to reach peak emissions earlier and do more to cut coal consumption, a key source of greenhouse gases.听听
However, China argues its current commitments are strong.听听
President Xi Jinping has repeatedly promised to 鈥渋ncrease the strength鈥 of its nationally determined contributions (NDC), the emissions goals that each country must submit under the Paris accords, to reflect China鈥檚 commitment to reach the 2060 鈥渘et zero鈥 target.听听
China鈥檚 top climate envoy Xie Zhenhua said in August that China had already strengthened other pledges, including a new renewable energy target and a commitment to bring emissions to a peak 鈥渂efore鈥 2030 instead of 鈥渁round鈥 2030.听听
China has also said it will cut coal consumption starting in 2026 and produce 25% of its energy from non-fossil fuel sources by 2030.听听
OVERSEAS PRESSURE听
The Chinese government is unwilling to be seen buckling to overseas pressure on the coal consumption cuts, US diplomatic sources said. China is the world鈥檚 biggest coal user and the industry employs many workers.听听
鈥淎mid all the uncertainties, one thing has become clear 鈥 Beijing will not give in to foreign powers,鈥 said Li Shuo, a climate expert with Greenpeace. 鈥淭he best way to propel Chinese climate action is to align it with China鈥檚 self-interest.鈥澨听
China must submit updated NDCs before the COP26 begins.听But,听rather than introduce new pledges, analysts expect them to provide more details about how existing long-term targets, described by Premier Li Keqiang as extremely arduous, can be achieved.听听
Environmental think-tanks, such as the Innovative Green Development Program (IGDP) base in Beijing, say the government may update China鈥檚 NDCs to include a 2025 energy consumption cap, more action on greenhouse gases other than carbon dioxide, as well as a 鈥渞oadmap鈥 to achieve existing targets.听听
Last week, the China Center for International Cooperation on Environment and Development, a government advisory body, also recommended China set a 2025 total emissions cap.听听
However, it is uncertain if the government will make bigger changes in the NDCs and China鈥檚 comments following the meetings with Kerry are not a cause for optimism.听听
The US had hoped to keep climate discussions as 鈥渟tandalone鈥 issues from other items such as its support for Taiwan and allegations of human rights abuses in Xinjiang.听听
But senior Chinese diplomat Wang Yi told Kerry during their meeting that the 鈥渙asis鈥 of climate cooperation could not be separated from the diplomatic 鈥渄esert鈥 between them.听听
For its part, China could seek exemptions from a new European carbon border tax and push richer countries to fulfil financing pledges to developed nations, analysts said.听听
Beijing will also seek reassurances that Washington can meet its own pledges, said Zou at the Energy Foundation China.听听
鈥淚f Trump or someone with the same views returns, then it is a matter of concern to everyone whether US climate policy will experience another twist,鈥 he said.听听
Alex Wang, an expert in environmental law at the University of California, Los Angeles, said the best way the United States could influence China鈥檚 climate actions was by example.听听
鈥淭he US critiques are not surprising and point to real areas where China needs to do better,鈥 he said. 鈥淏ut the United States has also not done nearly enough. One of the best ways the United States could exert pressure now is by taking decisive and durable climate action at home.鈥 鈥斕David Stanway and Muyu Xu/Reuters听
