The听Philippine economy听is expected to grow听by 4.3% this year听鈥 slower than originally expected 鈥 due to听recurring听coronavirus听infection surges in the region, according to the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO).听
AMRO鈥檚 latest estimate published on Friday听is weaker than the 6.9% forecast it gave in March, and is near the lower end of the government鈥檚 4-5% full-year听growth听target.听
The research office also cut its growth outlook for 2022 to 6.7% from 7.8%,听below the 7-9% target set by economic managers for next year.听
Among the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), Singapore is expected to grow the fastest this year at 6.3%, followed by the Philippines, Malaysia (4.1%), Indonesia (3.8%), Laos (2.9%),听Cambodia (2.8%), Vietnam (2.6%), Brunei (2.1%) and Thailand (0.8%).听Economic output in coup-stricken Myanmar is听expected to shrink听by 18.7%.听
The Philippine economy听grew听by 11.8% year on year in the second quarter,听though it declined 1.3%听on a听quarterly basis.听
鈥淭he recurring waves of infections foreshadowed half-a-year ago have indeed materialized, with听the听attendant impact on regional growth,鈥 AMRO said.听鈥淭he greater risk at this stage is the continuing mutation of the virus into potentially vaccine-resistant strains that could have important implications for the economy.鈥听
Metro Manila and some provinces听were placed under a strict lockdown again听in March and August听amid a fresh surge in infections, the latest of which were spurred by a more contagious Delta variant.听
Restrictions were relaxed as infections declined, allowing for more business activities to resume. Active cases rose by 5,823 to 66,838 on Friday,听according to听data from the Health Department.听
鈥淎s policy space continues to narrow in the region, the rollout of vaccination programs听鈥斕齝oupled with increasing realization about the endemic nature of the virus听鈥斕齝ould become a crucial game changer for growth,鈥 AMRO said.听
The Philippine听government听has fully vaccinated 22.48% or 24.307 million of its population, according to听Johns Hopkins University. The government听seeks听to inoculate 70 million Filipinos by听year-end.听
AMRO听said听the region鈥檚 vaccination rate听is听crucial听because听it could allow travel bubbles and the possibility of reopening听the tourism and hospitality industry.听
鈥淏ut full resumption is likely to take a while, given the wide variation in vaccination rates across the region, ranging from below 15% in Myanmar to more than 80% in Singapore, largely due to supply considerations,鈥 it said.听
鈥淭he ebb and flow in infections even in some highly vaccinated economies further underscore the complexity of economic reopening,鈥 it added.听
AMRO听noted that听the听Philippines,听Malaysia, China, Hong Kong and Vietnam听have experienced improved exports听due to听a听steady demand for electronics, computers and听cars.听
鈥淗owever, this momentum had started to wane in May, as the Delta variant triggered fresh restrictions across the region,鈥 it said.听鈥淚n China, the outbreaks in its eastern and southern provinces have weighed on factory output in recent months.鈥听
The Philippine economy shrank by a record 9.6%听last year.听鈥 Luz Wendy T. Noble听
