Support for Marcos camp at risk as Duterte feud escalates, analysts say

By Kenneth Christiane L. Basilio, Reporter

PHILIPPINE PRESIDENT Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. should not appear to go overboard in his squabble with the Dutertes as it could backfire and weaken political support for his camp as the country nears its midterm polls, analysts said.

Mr. Marcos’ government dealt successive blows against the Dutertes by surrendering his predecessor, former President Rodrigo R. Duterte to the International Criminal Court (ICC) last week to face trial for alleged crimes against humanity, just over a month after his daughter, Vice-President Sara Duterte-Carpio, was impeached by the House of Representatives on Feb. 5.

“The Marcos camp should handle this carefully since they cannot appear to be overdoing it,” Arjan P. Aguirre, who teaches political science at the Ateneo de Manila University, said in a Facebook Messenger chat.

“It may backfire. There already seems to be a shift, a resurgence of wide support for the Dutertes,” he added.

The Philippines has been embroiled in a deepening political feud between two of the country’s most influential families. Their alliance publicly eroded last year after a series of escalating tit-for-tat exchanges between the Marcoses and the Dutertes.

“People might develop sympathy for Duterte if they appear pitiful… The Duterte camp will exploit this moment and further… strengthen their support,” Mr. Aguirre said.

“The Marcos government should handle everything by the book and in a calibrated manner,” he added.

The Duterte camp will likely benefit from efforts to paint Mr. Duterte’s arrest by ICC as “mere politicking,” Mr. Aguirre said.

In a statement, Deputy Majority Leader and La Union Rep. Francisco Paolo P. Ortega V said allies of Mr. Duterte should stop politicizing the former firebrand leader’s ICC trial.

“Stop deceiving the people. This is not an election, not a propaganda war, and certainly not fake news. Do not turn a serious trial into a drama,” he said.

The government’s decision to hand over Mr. Duterte to the ICC would spark further partisanship between the Marcos and Duterte camps, Anthony Lawrence A. Borja, an associate political science professor at the De La Salle University, said in a Facebook chat.

The development would make it harder for independent and opposition candidates to gain electoral traction as the midterm election approaches, he added

“[It] would reinforce already existing tribal lines and put the liberal-progressive opposition in a tight space as the awkward third party in this polarized political arena,” he said.

“It is now a challenge for them to… make themselves distinct from both [the Dutertes and Marcoses],” he added.

Opposition candidates should not side with the Marcoses just to pin the Duterte camp, Mr. Aguirre said. “They must learn how to distance themselves from the two warring dynasties.”

They should also shun personality politics and lean towards being more issue-based to raise the political discourse, he added.