ASEAN leaders explore new ways to address Myanmar political crisis

PRESIDENT Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. on Thursday said Southeast Asian leaders were exploring new strategies including informal talks to address the political crisis in junta-led Myanmar.

While a five-point consensus has been pushed for since 2021, it has “not been very successful” in improving the situation in Myanmar, he told Philippine reporters on the sidelines of the 44^th and 45^th summits of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in Laos, based on a transcript from his office.

“So, we are trying to formulate new strategies.”

Mr. Marcos said the Philippines’ position on the consensus remains the same, there should be new ways to “move forward.”

The consensus called for an immediate end to violence in Myanmar, dialogue among all involved parties, the appointment of a special envoy, humanitarian assistance from ASEAN, and a visit to the junta-led country by a special envoy.

The ASEAN has barred Myanmar’s junta from attending its summit after the 2021 coup, which saw the arrest of democratically elected leaders, including Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, due to its failure to comply with the consensus.

In an unexpected development, the Myanmar junta sent a “non-political” delegate to the high-level talks this week.

STABILIZING FORCE
The ASEAN bloc remains a “stabilizing force” in Southeast Asia despite making only incremental progress on key issues, including Myanmar’s civil war and the drafting of a code of conduct for the South China Sea, its secretary-general said.

Leaders of the 10-member ASEAN are meeting in Laos this week with heads of government and top diplomats from partners including the United States, China, Japan and Russia.

The bloc, home to over 685 million people and representing around 8% of global exports, has been unable to push resolutions on difficult regional issues, which analysts say risks undermining ASEAN’s central role in its backyard.

But ASEAN’s Secretary-General Kao Kim Hourn insisted the grouping has constantly pushed for dialogue and diplomacy, ensuring that negotiations move ahead.

“ASEAN has been, I would say, the stabilizing force,” the former Cambodian diplomat told Reuters in an interview late on Wednesday.

“We take the issues head on,” he said. “People always put too much emphasis on problems, but the way I look at ASEAN, we have come a long way.”

For instance, Kao Kim Hourn said, with member economies increasingly integrated and trade agreements in place with many external partners, ASEAN attracted $230 billion in new investments in 2023. 

“The fact that there is confidence and trust in ASEAN, that’s why the $230-billion investment moves into ASEAN,” he said. “The future is here.”

MYANMAR IS ‘COMPLEX’
ASEAN has made little progress with its “Five Point Consensus” peace plan for Myanmar, unveiled months after a 2021 coup, but Kao Kim Hourn said the leaders of ASEAN remain adamant that the grouping will stay engaged with Myanmar.

“We need time and patience,” the secretary-general said. “Myanmar is such a complicated, a complex issue… We should not expect a quick fix.”

Conflict has raged in Myanmar, with an expanding armed resistance against the military government. Some 18.6 million people, more than a third of the population, are estimated to be in need of humanitarian assistance.

Despite losing control of wide swathes of territory and being pinned down across multiple frontlines, the junta appears to be pushing ahead with plans for an election next year, which has been widely derided as a sham.

ASEAN will continue to push for “inclusive political dialogue” among all conflicting parties in Myanmar, said Kao Kim Hourn, even as leaders look to scale up humanitarian assistance.

Thailand has offered to host an “informal consultation” on Myanmar in December among ASEAN members, some of whom are divided between those who want the junta to do more and those calling for more talks among warring parties.

SOUTH CHINA SEA DISPUTE
Another major concern for ASEAN is tension in the South China Sea, where confrontations in disputed waters continue between China and the Philippines, and more recently Vietnam.

The situation has brought renewed attention to ASEAN’s protracted negotiations with Beijing towards creating a code of conduct for the vital waterway, a process in motion since 2017.

“Until now, there have been ongoing negotiations,” Kao Kim Hourn said, “It’s not static, it’s not standstill, but things are still moving ahead.”

China claims almost the entire South China Sea, a conduit for $3 trillion of trade annually, and has deployed an armada of coast guard deep into areas claimed by ASEAN members Vietnam, the Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia and Brunei.

While some ASEAN countries hope the code can be concluded in a few years, prospects for a legally binding text remain distant, analysts say.

“The good part is that as long as there are still dialogue and diplomacy on the table and moving forward, I think there’s a lot of hope there,” Kao Kim Hourn said. — Kyle Aristophere T. Atienza with Reuters