Duterte remains threat to Marcos, analysts say

By Kyle Aristophere T. Atienza, Reporter

FORMER President Rodrigo R. Duterte’s camp remains the biggest threat to the Marcos-led coalition in the midterm elections next year amid a still fragmented opposition that fought the previous government, political analysts said.

“The elites and traditional politicians are winning the game, while the minority and opposition are far down the line,” Jan Robert Go, a political science professor at the University of the Philippines Diliman, said in an e-mail.

“Of course, social media has been the medium of many politicians, but many have already started their groundwork, especially the incumbents vying for reelection,” he added.

Mr. Go said there is still significant Duterte support across the country, which is bad for the Marcos coalition.

“But remember, our politics is very personal,” he said. “Voters may not necessarily consider the coalition but the specific individuals running for office. Issues can be salient for others, but other factors such as local politics could add another layer.”

Philippine political camps — the Marcos-led coalition, the opposition-posturing movement led by the Dutertes and the older opposition forces that have failed to secure key national seats in recent years — have bared their preparations for the 2025 midterm polls.

Local politicians have been jumping to President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr.’s Partido Federal ng Pilipinas (PFP), which has formed an alliance with the Nacionalista Party, Nationalist People’s Coalition and Lakas-CMD in preparation for the 2025 elections.

Meanwhile, Mr. Duterte’s PDP-Laban held a national assembly on Saturday in Davao City, the tough-talking politician’s bailiwick, where it was announced that Senator Robinhood C. Padilla will act as the party’s campaign manager next year. Davao City Mayor Sebastian Z. Duterte will serve as its vice president.

Amid bickering between the Marcos and Duterte groups, the Liberal Party has said ex-Senator Francis Pancratius “Kiko” N. Pangilinan, human rights lawyer Jose Manuel “Chel” I. Diokno and former Senator Paolo Benigno “Bam” A. Aquino IV would run for the Senate.

Mr. Diokno left the Katipunan ng Nagkakaisang Pilipino (KANP), which is headed by Mr. Aquino, to join Senator Ana Theresia “Risa” Hontiveros-Baraquel’s Akbayan Party, whose party-list group is expected to be proclaimed as among the winners of the 2022 elections after the disqualification of another group.

Ms. Hontiveros, the highest-elected official among opposition personalities, has endorsed the three-way tandem of Mr. Diokno, Mr. Aquino and Mr. Pangilinan.

She has gained popularity after starting separate investigations of Philippine Offshore Gaming Operations (POGO), which Mr. Duterte legalized in 2019 despite their reported links to Chinese syndicates and transnational crimes, and televangelist Apolo C. Quiboloy, Mr. Duterte’s spiritual adviser.

Arjan P. Aguirre, a political science professor at the Ateneo de Manila University, said mainstream opposition candidates such as Mr. Pangilinan and Mr. Aquino were not getting the attention that they used to have because they have been out of power for years.

“They are really having a hard time making themselves relevant again,” he said in an e-mail. “It seems that they are being careful in making statements or making a stand on the issues that are really contentious. The rationale here is not to appear too negative or extreme on issues.”

“But they can still do that but not to the point of losing the opportunity to make themselves stand out among the rest by offering an alternative and sensible view or perspective.”

The Makabayan opposition bloc at the House of Representatives has said it would field a 12-man slate for the 2025 elections. It has announced 10 senatorial bets including Party-list Reps. France L. Castro and Arlene G. Brosas .

Anthony Lawrence Borja, who teaches political science at De La Salle University, said the Liberal Party, which suffered major losses under the Duterte government, is in a more “maneuverable position” since it has more in common with the Marcos government than with the Makabayan bloc or Duterte camp.

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There were “flirtations” or efforts to include the liberal opposition in a broader administration bloc, he added. “The administration group is certainly ahead with coalition building,” he said in an e-mail.

Mr. Borja said it is the first time in a long while since leftist coalition Bagong Alyansang Makabayan has fielded its own slate. Including labor leaders Leodegario “Ka Leody” de Guzman and Luke S. Espiritu, Jr. who are both from a different leftist group, would be “a watershed moment for the Filipino Left.”

“If not, then it will end up as another projection of disunity.”

“As for the Marcos camp, its coalition-building is a classic form of catch-all party politics legitimized by the incumbent ‘unity’ narrative,” Mr. Borja said. “Overall, between the Marcos and Duterte camps, the former is in a position to expand its voter base.”

Mr. Aguirre said mishandling political issues could backfire and cause “tremendous harm” on the Marcos camp. “The framing that the Duterte camp is using is simple — this is all politics and that this is meant to betray and deny them the opportunity to run in 2028.”

He said it’s never too late for opposition groups to form a united ticket, which can be pursued by “just sticking to common and basic issues that the general public can easily hold on to.”

Maria Ela L. Atienza, who teaches political science at UP, noted that in a country where political parties are underdeveloped, those who are popular on social media would become “early gainers.”

“Many of these gainers are traditional politicians and those who have invested a lot in media exposure.”

Drawing lessons from the 2022 elections, Ms. Atienza said the coalition supporting the ruling government is likely to “self-destruct” after the midterms since members have “no strong programs or principles” that would bind them.

She urged opposition groups to boost their presence and offer “more viable alternatives” amid the Marcos-Duterte showdown.

“They should stress that the opposition groups were the first to campaign against these issues now hounding the Duterte camp, and which pro-Marcos politicians are suddenly also pushing now that the tides have turned,” she added.