Chinese objections loom as US, Philippines hold big war games

By Kyle Aristophere T. Atienza, Reporter

THE PHILIPPINES should brace for more objections from China as Manila and Washington hold their largest-ever joint military exercises this month, political analysts said on Sunday.

China is expected to ramp up its “wolf warrior rhetoric” against the United States and the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) to satisfy the members of the Chinese Communist Party, policy analyst Michael Henry Ll. Yusingco said in a Facebook Messenger chat.

“We know that this fire and bluster is meant for the domestic audience,” he said. “It is meant to keep the adherents of the Communist Party hooked and loyal. We need to stay focused on the goal of protecting our territory from invaders.”

More than 17,600 Filipino and American soldiers will participate in Balikatan 2023, which the US said would “enable the AFP and US military to refine tactics, techniques and procedures related to maritime security, and deconflict fires and maneuver in a shared and contested battlespace.”

Given China’s posturing against increased US presence in the Philippines, “the AFP needs to be more forthright with the exercises,” Mr. Yusingco said.

“In particular, it should exert more effort to provide a clear and honest report to us about how the exercises have improved our defense capabilities,” he said. “They should keep on explaining to us the grave external threats we are facing and how the exercises have helped our AFP defend us against these threats.”

The “should-to-shoulder” drills will include live-fire exercises near disputed waters in the South China Sea and a plan to sink a decommissioned fishing boat in San Antonio, Zambales province on the main Philippine island of Luzon.

San Antonio is about 140 miles from Scarborough Shoal, which is claimed by China. In 2016, an international court ruled both Chinese and Filipino traditional fishermen have the right to fish there. China has ignored the ruling.

“The exercises have made more aggressive moves by China a distinct possibility as well,” Mr. Yusingco said. “I’m sure other countries in the region are factoring this possibility in their defense strategies. So, the government should prepare us for this possibility as well.”

“The public deserves to know what the plan is if this happens. We don’t expect a detailed plan of action at this point, but we should be informed of the general direction at least,” he added.

The annual drills, which will take place amid China’s increasing assertiveness in the South China Sea and US tensions with China over self-ruled Taiwan, will be observed by Japan, South Korea, the United Kingdom, France and India.

“The largest Balikatan exercise will set new rules for diplomatic engagements and military formations in the region against the backdrop of a heightened power competition of China and the US,” Chester B. Cabalza, founding president of Manila-based International Development and Security Cooperation, said in a Messenger chat.

He noted that China, a resident power in the region that is getting stronger and feared, is seen as an “incorrigible troublemaker” by its allies in the region.

“The real task is how China will succeed in reversing the tide of narratives in its favor,” he said. “The resistance of Beijing on the biggest Balikatan exercise and expansion of military sites in northern Philippines is an act of reverse psychology on how it has militarized and politicized the region from the South China Sea to the Taiwan Strait.”

In February, the Philippines gave the US access to four more military bases under their 2014 Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) on top of the five existing sites. Three of the four new EDCA locations will be in northern Philippines — Naval Base Camilo Osias in Santa Ana, Cagayan; Lal-lo Airport, also in Cagayan; and Camp Melchor dela Cruz in Gamu, Isabela.

Cagayan is about 1,000 kilometers away from self-ruled Taiwan, which is being claimed by China. Balabac Island in Palawan, which is facing the South China Sea, is also on the list.

Mr. Cabalza said the Philippines now has a “proactive middle power role” as it becomes an important supporting actor in the conflicts involving the US and China “since the friction would emanate from our backyard.”

‘ALLIED READINESS’
Filipino policymakers and activists have criticized the EDCA expansion, saying it could drag the Philippines into any potential war involving the US, which has pledged to defend Taiwan if it gets invaded by China.

“Coming off the announcement of four new EDCA sites, this grand Balikatan military drills convey allied readiness to respond to regional challenges,” Lucio B. Pitlo, a research fellow at the Asia-Pacific Pathways to Progress Foundation, said via Messenger chat. “Balikatan exercise areas — Batanes, which is very close to Taiwan, and Zambales and Palawan facing the West Philippine Sea — bear on simmering flashpoints.”

“The expansion of EDCA and these large-scale military exercises raise concerns on the part of China, the Philippines’ largest trade partner,” he said. “Beijing would be naive if this was a surprise to them. So many overtures have been going on between the Marcos government and US President Joseph Biden’s administration that this is mostly a return to form for our security sector,” Hansley A. Juliano, a political economy researcher, said via Messenger chat.

The Philippine security sector has never been in “active ideologues.”

“They tend to gravitate to whomever Malacañang prefers,” he said. “Most of the pro-China brass you heard under the former administration are likely singing praises back at the US now, or if they were ideologues, they’re probably mid-level officials or bureaucrats that are not in top positions of policymaking.”

China knows it could not afford a war considering its own economic downturn, he added.

Provocations might persist “if China needs a propaganda coup or it needs to intimidate others in Asia to toe the line,” he said. “They know the Philippines is swayed by the whims of its politico-economic elite. China can continue waiting unless hawkish policy is adopted. They waited and played under the table under former President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo and ex-President Rodrigo R. Duterte, and they can continue doing so if sympathetic elites are at play.”