PHL shares may decline further before key data

PHILIPPINE SHARES may continue to move lower this week before the release of key data that could show the impact of the Middle East war on the economy, with the lack of a resolution to the conflict weighing on sentiment.

On Thursday, the Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) fell by 1.25% or 74.25 points to close at 5,833.64, while the broader all shares index dropped by 0.7% or 23.4 points to 3,320.20.

This was the PSEi’s lowest finish in over five months or since it closed at 5,813.71 on Nov. 19, 2025.

Week on week, the bellwether index dropped by 109.85 points from April 24’s 5,943.49.

Philippine markets were closed on Friday (May 1) for Labor Day.

“The local bourse succumbed to heavy selling pressure [last] week as heightened risk aversion, compounded by the peso’s historic low, dragged the PSEi down,” online brokerage 2TradeAsia.com said in a note.

For this week, Philstocks Financial, Inc. Research Manager Japhet Louis O. Tantiangco said Philippine shares are expected to remain under pressure amid dwindling hopes of an end to the Iran conflict, which would threaten the inflation outlook.

“The local market is still expected to move with a downward bias this week as it continues to deal with lingering concerns from elevated global oil prices to rising inflation and interest rate expectations. Adding to the worries is the weakening of the peso to record lows and the inflationary risks it brings,” he said.

“Poor foreign investor confidence, rising import costs, and rising US bond yields have sunk the peso to record lows. Currently below 61 against the US dollar, a sustained weakness of the local currency is expected to continue discouraging foreign investors and pose inflationary risks.”

These continue to heighten inflation expectations, which would strengthen the case for further policy tightening by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP), he added.

“With its current level, the local market is deemed to be at a bargain. However, investors are still advised to remain cautious. With the downside risks at play, the market may continue to decline.”

Mr. Tantiangco put the PSEi’s immediate support at 5,800 and major resistance at 6,000.

He added that data on inflation, manufacturing, labor, and gross domestic product due for release this week could provide the market with leads.

For its part, 2TradeAsia.com placed the PSEi’s immediate support at 5,800, resistance at 6,050, and secondary resistance at 6,300.

“This combination of geopolitical energy risks, stickier global inflation, a firmer dollar, and domestic margin pressures creates a challenging environment for sustaining aggressive risk positioning in Philippine equities,” it said.

It added that currency stability concerns amid the peso’s latest slide could further limit the BSP’s room for policy stimulus. — Alexandria Grace C. Magno