A call to restore trust, pursue clarity

����ý Forecast 2026 highlights critical need for rebuilding investor confidence in response to heightened institutional distrust

By Bjorn Biel M. Beltran, Special Features and Content Assistant Editor

Trust is more than sentimentality. In business and finance, trust is capital; and in matters of capital, losses do not mirror gains. When you lose 50% of a P1,000 investment, you don’t recover completely when you gain 50% of your remaining P500 back. You would need 100%.

The base shrinks, and everything that follows grows from a weaker foundation. More critically, losses choke off future potential. They make growth harder, costlier, and slower than any ordinary business disruption. Which is why systems built on trust,��be it��financial or political, treat losses as existential risks. A single breach changes the entire trajectory, demanding repairs far costlier than the damage itself.

“For the past many years, we have been talking about disruption in the context of technology and innovation — how breakthroughs are forcing our businesses to evolve and adapt,” Miguel G. Belmonte, president and chief executive officer (CEO) of ����ý, began ����ý Forecast 2026, which discussed the Philippines’ economic prospects in the coming year.

“This time, however, we grapple with a more sinister form of disruption: that is, a corruption crisis, which — combined with political volatility — is weakening the peso, dampening the country’s growth prospects, dragging the stock market, and pulling down business confidence in general.”

Citing official data from the Asian Development Bank and the��Bangko��Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP), Mr. Belmonte argued that the Philippines is starting 2026 from a worse position than the year prior. This is because the country is never an isolated case, but one that struggles and thrives amid a global backdrop that is increasingly volatile due to geopolitics, climate change, and technological shifts like artificial intelligence.

“At times like this, what matters most for markets and businesses is not the noise around us, but the strength of our institutions and the steadiness of our long-term fundamentals,” former BSP Governor and currently the Chairman and Independent Director of the Board at SM Investments Corp. Amando M. Tetangco, Jr. said during his keynote address.

“Across the private sector, there is��shared��understanding that governance concerns must be addressed with firmness and transparency. In this environment, investors and consumers look for clarity — clarity of direction, policy consistency, and discipline execution,” he stressed.

Navigating directions for growth

����ý Forecast 2026 also��attempted��to provide clarity in other areas. From diagnosing the Philippines’ current problems and challenges, the forum explored where growth can still come from and where businesses should direct their attention.

The forum’s first panel, “The Macro-Economic Compass: Charting the Path amid Global Headwinds,” brought together Neil Adrian S. Cabiles, assistant secretary of the Department of Finance; Andrew Jeffries, country director for the Asian Development Bank; Nicholas Antonio T. Mapa, chief economist and markets strategist at Metropolitan Bank & Trust Co.; and Eduardo V. Francisco, president of BDO Capital & Investment Corp. Moderated by ����ý Editor-in-Chief Cathy Rose A. Garcia, the discussion examined geopolitical tensions, supply-chain vulnerabilities, climate risk, and slowing global demand.

Next, the second panel addressed the technological revolution at the forefront of many business leaders’ minds. The discussion on “AI Unleashed: Moving from Adoption to Integration,” featured Congressman Brian Poe��Llamanzares,��chairman��of the Global AI Council; Marco de la Rosa, senior��partner��and Philippines country head at A.T. Kearney; and Ambe C.��Tierro, country managing director of Accenture Philippines. Moderated by ����ý Corporate Editor Arjay L. Balinbin, the session explored how businesses are moving beyond pilot-stage AI adoption toward full operational integration.

A fireside chat on legal reforms followed, led by Atty.��Nilo��T. Divina, founder and managing partner of��DivinaLaw, and moderated by ����ý reporter Chloe Mari A. Hufana. The conversation reviewed major reforms such as TRAIN and CREATE laws, noting their potential to enhance tax efficiency, investment attractiveness, and regulatory predictability.

The afternoon resumed with a session on sustainability, “The Green Transition: Sustainability as a Catalyst for Growth,” featuring Jocot de Dios, CEO of Manila Water, and moderated by journalist and academic Dr. Danie Laurel, who also hosted the entire Forecast 2026. The session highlighted accelerating investments in renewable energy (RE), the Philippines’��strong performance��in global RE attractiveness rankings, and the rising importance of climate-aligned policies.

This was followed by an exclusive presentation from Pauline Fermin, president and CEO of Acumen Strategy Consultants about their ongoing “Project Alphabet: Decoding Filipinos Across Generations.” Ms. Fermin outlined generational behaviors and social trends influencing consumption, workplace expectations, and broader socioeconomic shifts. These patterns, she noted, will play a significant role in shaping demand and labor dynamics next year.

Expanding on that thread, the third panel, “The Future of Work: Managing a Multigenerational Workforce,” featured Enrique Antonio Reyes,��vice-president��and head of Strategic Business Partnering at Converge ICT Solutions, Inc.; Steph Naval, founder and CEO of Empath; and Miguel Lim Lanuza, head of Leadership and Culture at Mynt. Moderated by ����ý reporter Beatriz Marie D. Cruz, the conversation explored communication gaps, digital adoption, mental health concerns, and succession planning across five generations now coexisting in the workplace.

Finally, the panel on “Navigating the New Normal in Trade: How the Philippines is Faring in the New Global Trade Order,” convened Danilo “Dan” C. Lachica, president of the Semiconductor and Electronics Industries in the Philippines Foundation, Inc. (SEIPI); Victor Andres “Dindo” C.��Manhit, president of the��Stratbase��Institute; and John Reinier H. Dizon, president of the Federation of Philippine Industries. Moderated by former ����ý reporter Luisa Maria Jacinta C. Jocson, the session tackled import dependence, tariff pressures, regional competition, and opportunities from the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership and digital-trade reforms.

Lessons for the nation

In his keynote address, Mr. Tetangco reflected on his experiences and the lessons he had learned from his career, commenting on how it currently applies to the Philippines’ economic landscape.��

“Credibility is the foundation of trust, and trust is the foundation of confidence,” he said. “At the BSP, I saw that stability is built not on the inflation of exchange rates, but on credible signals and steady follow-through.”

He said that in the private sector, the principle is the same. Leaders and investors can act when direction is��clear��and institutions are reliable.

Global conditions��remain��complex, but they continue to reshape��opportunities,��he also stressed. Supply chains are being rebalanced as producers distribute production and risk. More broadly,��jurisdictions��that offer predictability and strong institutions are benefiting. Technology is lowering barriers, with tools most limited to large companies now available to micro, small, and medium enterprises. Sustainability is becoming essential for long-term competitiveness as global regulations��tighten��and investors incorporate climate exposure into their decision-making.

“We operate in a world achieved by shifting geopolitics, climate pressures, and tighter fiscal space. These conditions require focus, clarity, and steady discipline. Countries and companies that keep direction clear, uphold sound governance, and follow through on commitments tend to move forward even in the field of uncertainty,” he said.

“This discipline, rooted in credible institutions, consistent policies, and purposeful execution, remains one of any economy’s or any company’s key strengths,” he concluded.

This edition of ����ý Forecast 2026 was presented by ����ý Corp., Ford Motor Company Philippines, and Megaworld Corp.; together with gold sponsors Ayala Corp., BDO Capital and Investment Corp., Federal Land NRE Global, Inc. (FNG), JuanHand, San Miguel Corp., and SM Investments Corp.; silver sponsors Citicore Renewable Energy Corp., DATEM, Inc., GCash, Globe Telecom, Inc., GT Capital Holdings, Inc., PLDT, Inc., and Smart Communications, Inc.; bronze sponsors Development Bank of the Philippines, Ovialand, Inc., Philippine Amusement and Gaming Corp., SM Supermalls, and National Grid Corporation of the Philippines; partner organizations Asian Consulting Group, American Chamber of Commerce of the Philippines, Bank Marketing Association of the Philippines, British Chamber of Commerce of the Philippines, CCI France Philippines, European Chamber of Commerce of the Philippines, Financial Executives Institute of the Philippines, J. Legaspi Computer Graphics, Management Association of the Philippines, Team Executive Decisions, Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Philippine Franchise Association, Philippine Retailers Association, and Isla Lipana & Co. (PwC Philippines); and media partners One News and The Philippine STAR.