Filipinos’ optimism surges to fresh high – SWS

Optimism over the quality of life rose to a record high in the fourth quarter, while confidence about economic growth prospects perked up during the same period, pollster Social Weather Stations Survey said in its latest report.

At least one analyst said oil’s free fall has given consumers reason to cheer, while Malacañang signaled reform efforts would not lose momentum.

For the survey, SWS polled 1,200 adults nationwide from Dec. 5 to 8, asking them if they expect their personal quality of life to improve in the next 12 months.

Forty-five percent of those surveyed answered in the affirmative (“optimists”), while 5% said they expect life to get worse (“pessimists”), so that the result was a net personal optimism score of “very high” +40 (the difference between “optimists” and “pessimists”), a record high.

That breaks the record set in March last year when the reading was a “very high” +37. In the third quarter, the result was a “very high” +33.

“There is only one probable reason for this, the oil price is continuously going down which is affecting purchasing power of individuals,” Edmund S. Tayao, political science professor at the University of Santo Tomas, said in an interview.

Global oil prices had been holding up above $30 per barrel following last week’s recovery, but bets are still on that lower lows still are lurking down the road.

“To the average Filipinos, this means more disposable income,” Mr. Tayao said, adding that election-related spending could help create jobs lifting sentiment among the unemployed.

The same survey found 39% as betting that the economy would improve in the next 12 months, while 8% felt it would deteriorate, yielding a “very high” +30 net optimism about the economy.

The latest score is 12 points above the +18 in September last year and matches the +30 seen in November 2010, although failing to beat the record +39 logged in June 2010.

With respondents who said they lived better lives in the past year (“gainers”) outnumbering those who said they’re worse off (“losers”), the SWS survey yielded a “high” net gainers score of +5, marking a fourth consecutive quarter of gains.

Still, that’s a point below the similarly “high” +4 (29% gainers minus 25% losers) recorded in September.

Sought for comment, Communications Secretary Herminio B. Coloma Jr. said via text on Monday: “The uptrend in our people’s optimistic outlook on the economy and the improvement of their quality of life provides impetus for the President and the Cabinet to intensify efforts to complete vital development and reform programs.”

The survey has sampling error margins of ±3 points for national percentages and ±6 points each for Metro Manila, “Balance Luzon,” the Visayas, and Mindanao.

On the SWS net personal optimism scale, scores of at least +30 are classified as “very high” while those falling under the +20 to +29 range are deemed “high.”

The range of +10 to +19 that factors in the historical median and mode — or what is normally expected — is classified as “fair.” The range of +1 to +9 is classified as “mediocre” since it is below the median or what is normally expected, scores of zero to -9 are classified as “low,” while -10 and below are “very low.”

SWS considers movement from one classification to another as either an upgrade or downgrade.

Across the board

The seven-point rise in the national net personal optimism to +40 was driven by the nine-point rise to a “very high” +42 (from +33) in “Balance Luzon,” seven-point increase in Visayas (+32 from +25) and Mindanao (+41 from +34) and three points in Metro Manila (+43 from +40).

Meanwhile, SWS noted further that the 12-point rise in national net optimism about the economy was due to increases of 17 points in Visayas (+24 from +7), 13 points in Balance Luzon (+32 from +19), 11 points in Mindanao (+36 from +25), and seven points in Metro Manila (+26 from +19).

Both readings on confidence on the quality of life and the economy stayed “very high” across socioeconomic classes, steady from September’s results.

The one-point rise in national net gainers, SWS said, was due to increase of four points in Mindanao (+7 from +3) and one point in Balance Luzon (+8 from +7), combined with a decline of four points in the Visayas (-5 from -1) and a steady score in Metro Manila. — Kathryn Mae P. Tubadeza