Farm growth fuels Q2 GDP hopes
FARM OUTPUT last quarter turned around from a year-ago decline, growing faster than January-March鈥檚 expansion due to the past year鈥檚 low base, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) reported on Tuesday ahead of its gross domestic product (GDP) report tomorrow.
PSA said value of agricultural production — which has historically contributed a 10th to GDP and a fourth to the country鈥檚 jobs — grew by 6.18% in the second quarter, faster than the preceding three months鈥 5.28% pace and turning around from the 2.21% contraction recorded in April-June 2016.
The second quarter took the farm sector鈥檚 first-half growth to 5.71%, also a turnaround from the 3.39% contraction recorded in 2016鈥檚 first six months.
The Department of Agriculture had earlier given a five-percent growth estimate for second-quarter farm output growth.
Farm sector expansion is now expected to have added impetus to second-quarter GDP growth — which Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Ernesto M. Pernia has estimated to approach seven percent — together with bigger state spending, continued recovery of merchandise exports and strong household consumption.
The crops subsector, which contributed 50.75% to total farm production value last quarter, grew by 11.72%, compared to a 4.98% year-ago drop.
In terms of volume, palay — which contributed about 17.55% to total value of farm output — grew 11.72% annually to 4.15 million metric tons (MT), while corn — which contributed 4.31% — surged 45.97% to 1.33 million MT.
Second-quarter performance made palay and corn output grow by 12.06% to 8.569 million MT and by 30.7% to 3.696 million MT, respectively, last semester.
In a separate July-round Rice and Corn Situation and Outlook report released also yesterday, the PSA said the fourth quarter may see a 3.58% hike in palay output to 7.263 million MT, making production this semester grow 6.76% year-on-year. Palay output is now projected to grow by 9.058% to 19.224 million MT this year from 2016鈥檚 17.627 million MT.
The PSA gave third- and fourth-quarter projections for corn output: a 1.23% dip to 2.63 million MT and 2.04% drop to 1.693 million MT, respectively. Corn output is now expected to fall by 1.55% this semester but still grow 11.08% for the full year. The PSA blamed projected contraction this semester on 鈥渇requent rainfall during growth stages鈥 of the grain and 鈥渇armers鈥 apprehension of the peace-and-order situation in the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao鈥.
Last quarter also saw value of production of fisheries (16.84% of the total), livestock (16.38%) and poultry (16.02%) drop 2.93% and 1.38%, as well as increase by 8.36%, respectively.
Sought for his own projection of farm output performance this semester, Rolando T. Dy, executive director of the University of Asia and the Pacific鈥檚 Center for Food and Agri-Business, said in a mobile phone message yesterday that growth will likely slow 鈥渢o a maximum of four percent鈥, still building on last year鈥檚 low base as the sector recovered from an earlier prolonged El Ni帽o-induced dry spell. — Janina C. Lim
