Trump’s ‘napkin’ trade deals are a worry for SE Asia, analyst says
NATIONS and businesses need to remain prepared for challenging impacts from US tariffs after next month’s deadline for trade deals, as agreements struck so far are short on firm details or commitments, according to a key policy watcher.
“I’ve been calling them , because I think they are about as durable as a paper napkin and they’re about as well specified as you could write on a paper napkin,” Deborah Elms, head of trade policy of the Hinrich Foundation told the Bloomberg Sustainable Business Summit in Singapore on Wednesday.
Duties set at 15% would remain “significantly higher than we had in March,” and will present difficulties “for a lot of companies and particularly for small businesses that are trying to navigate with fairly thin margins,” Ms. Elms said. For Southeast Asia specifically, uneven tariff rates are likely to “create challenges for supply chains,” she said.
President Donald J. Trump’s blizzard of recent trade deal announcements have faced criticism for lacking specifics, with key aspects of some agreements still under negotiation. The precise details of promised major investments by counterparties also remain uncertain, including large pledges by the European Union and Japan.
India may be hit with a , though a final levy had still not been settled on as the countries negotiate ahead of an Aug. 1 deadline, Mr. Trump said Tuesday. The US and China will before it expires in two weeks, and Mr. Trump will make the final call on any extension, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said after meetings in Stockholm with Chinese officials.
Concerns over trade are also adding to uncertainty over investments and hampering efforts on climate action, Ms. Elms said. Global investments into climate technology firms by venture capitalists and private equity firms in the first quarter from a year ago, according to data from market intelligence firm PitchBook.
‘PANIC MODE’
“Many companies are in a bit of a panic mode,” Ms. Elms said. “We will continue in the general direction, but it is not gonna be as smooth a process as we might have imagined in December.”
Even so, for many businesses, long-term commitments to lower emissions are an area of certainty in an otherwise uncertain global environment, Mary Ng, the former Canadian minister for international trade, told the summit.
“While there isn’t that intense activity around accelerating ESG, I wouldn’t even say that it’s a pause,” said Ms. Ng, who stepped down in March ahead of Canada’s election. “All the companies that I’ve been talking to have not stopped the work of looking through their supply chain with ESG in mind because that is just where the puck is going.” — Bloomberg
