PHILIPPINE equities sank the most in four years, and some analysts are already watching out for a bear market.
As fears over the spreading coronavirus escalate, the Philippine Stock Exchange index lost 3.9% to 6,909.84 on Wednesday, taking its three-day slump to 6.8%. Manny Cruz, a strategist at Papa Securities Corp. in Manila, says the gauge could test the 6,692.23 level in the coming months, marking a 20% slide from its 2019 high, as concerns over the outbreak and its impact undermine expectations of stronger economic and earnings growth this year.
鈥淚t wouldn鈥檛 be far to enter a bear market with the continued uncertainty,鈥 said Mr. Cruz, who correctly called a market rout in 2018, when earnings didn鈥檛 support valuations. 鈥淚f more advanced economies are taking a hit, what more with the Philippines? While we have one of the fewest cases, this can quickly and dramatically change, just like what happened in South Korea.鈥
Virus fears are hounding the Philippines even as it has had only three cases so far. Now the nation鈥檚 benchmark gauge is about 3% away from entering a bear market. With Wednesday鈥檚 sell-off, its year-to-date loss has mounted to almost 12%, the world鈥檚 worst performance after Lebanon and Thailand, which entered bear territory on Monday.
Philippine shares were already hit by President Rodrigo R. Duterte鈥檚 verbal attacks on some of the nation鈥檚 biggest business groups for contracts he alleged were disadvantageous to the public. Still, before the outbreak, analysts and investors came into 2020 with an optimistic outlook. The nation鈥檚 biggest money manager, BDO Unibank, Inc., and First Metro Investment Corp. were among those that anticipated a double-digit gain for the nation鈥檚 equity index this year, thanks to accelerating economic and earnings growth. But with the coronavirus, things have changed.
鈥淚t鈥檚 unthinkable earnings won鈥檛 take a hit,鈥 Mr. Cruz said, adding that 10% profit growth this year for Philippine companies could be鈥渙ptimistic鈥 because the outbreak has affected supply chains and consumer behavior. 鈥淭here will be a big dent in first-quarter earnings that will extend into the next three months.鈥
He expects rallies to be short-lived as risk-off sentiment has yet to peak since infections are still growing globally. 鈥淭he next stage from here will be talks and fears of a recession鈥 once the virus hit becomes apparent on the economies affected, he said.
And the effect will extend beyond the tourism and consumer sectors, he warns. A slowdown in manufacturing would slow demand for loans and electricity, creating a 鈥渄omino effect鈥 on other industries and the economy, according to Mr. Cruz. That鈥檚 why he favors stocks where he sees a more muted impact, such as lenders and developers including Bank of the Philippine Islands, Security Bank Corp., Metropolitan Bank & Trust Co. and Ayala Land, Inc. — Bloomberg
