ICC case vs Senator dela Rosa seen testing Marcos governance narrative

By Chloe Mari A. Hufana, Reporter

PHILIPPINE President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. should stress that any move to enforce an International Criminal Court (ICC) arrest warrant against Senator Ronald M. dela Rosa is being carried out through legal and constitutional processes, political analysts said, as the politically charged case threatens to deepen tensions ahead of the 2028 presidential election.

Malacañang’s handling of the ICC case could shape public perceptions of Mr. Marcos’ commitment to institutional governance as his alliance with the camp of former President Rodrigo R. Duterte continues to fracture.

“If Senator dela Rosa is eventually arrested through established legal processes, the political impact for President Marcos may, in many ways, reinforce the administration’s broader governance narrative entering the second half of his term,” Gary G. Ador Dionisio, dean of the School of Diplomacy and Governance at De La Salle-College of Saint Benilde, said via Facebook Messenger.

“It will strengthen the administration’s message that institutions are functioning and that accountability is being pursued through legal and constitutional channels, regardless of political affiliation,” he added.

Malacañang said future arrest warrants issued by the ICC against people linked to the drug war would be enforced immediately once coursed through the International Criminal Police Organization.

“There is a legal basis to enforce ICC arrest warrants,” Palace Press Officer Clarissa A. Castro told DZMM radio in Filipino on Sunday. “These ICC warrants do not need to go through local courts.”

Mr. Marcos, whose six-year term ends in 2028, has yet to identify a presidential bet, while Vice-President Sara Duterte-Carpio has announced plans to run for President amid an impeachment trial before the Senate.

‘ABOVE THE LAW’
Mr. Ador Dionisio said the administration’s strongest position would be to remain “consistent and institutional” by stressing that legal processes are being handled by proper authorities and that “no individual is above the law.”

He said such an approach could strengthen Mr. Marcos’ image as a leader focused on institutional stability and rule-based governance while limiting political backlash from Duterte supporters.

Mr. dela Rosa is wanted by the ICC for crimes against humanity tied to the Duterte administration’s anti-drug campaign. Mr. Duterte is detained in The Hague awaiting trial over the same allegations.

The senator went into hiding after the Department of Justice ordered law enforcement agencies to arrest him following the Supreme Court’s refusal to issue a temporary restraining order blocking enforcement of the ICC warrant.

Ederson DT. Tapia, a political science professor at the University of Makati, said any arrest would carry major political consequences because accountability efforts in highly polarized environments are rarely viewed as politically neutral.

“The administration’s handling of the ICC-related issue could deepen polarization between the Marcos and Duterte camps because the matter now sits at the intersection of law, accountability and succession politics,” he said via Facebook Messenger. “The closer the country moves toward 2028, the more institutional actions become politically charged.”

Mr. Tapia said Duterte allies could portray the arrest effort as political persecution, while others might see it as a test of whether Philippine institutions could enforce accountability regardless of political status.

“From the administration’s standpoint, the core argument will remain that, eventually, this becomes a question of law and whether institutions are prepared to implement legal processes regardless of political consequences,” he added.

Mr. Tapia also pointed to a recent assessment by GeoQuant, a unit of Fitch Solutions Group, which framed the Philippines’ intensifying political tensions as a governance risk.

He said the report showed how the fallout from the Marcos-Duterte split is beginning to shape international perceptions of governability, institutional stability and policy continuity ahead of the 2028 elections.

“What is significant is that an international political risk firm is now formally translating Philippine political tensions into institutional risk language,” he said.

GeoQuant earlier warned that the impeachment trial of Ms. Duterte could increase the risk of instability and political violence.

Relations between Mr. Marcos and Ms. Duterte deteriorated in 2024 after she resigned as Education secretary, citing personal and professional differences.

The rift widened further after the Marcos administration allowed Mr. Duterte’s arrest by international authorities.

In November 2024, Ms. Duterte allegedly threatened Mr. Marcos, First Lady Marie Louise A. Marcos and former Speaker Ferdinand Martin G. Romualdez during an online broadcast, which later became one of the grounds for her impeachment.

The Senate convened as an impeachment court last week, with senators saying the trial could begin on July 6.

Mr. dela Rosa resurfaced on May 11 after months out of public view to support a Senate leadership change that removed former Senate President Vicente C. Sotto III and installed Alan Peter S. Cayetano as chamber leader.