Impeachment raps vs VP Duterte unlikely to prosper, analysts say

By Kyle Aristophere T. Atienza and Kenneth Christiane L. Basilio, Reporters

PLANNED impeachment raps against Vice-President Sara Z. Duterte-Carpio may not prosper in Congress as the campaign season leading to the midterm elections in May is expected to take up much of lawmakers’ time, political analysts said.

While impeachment cases are yet to be filed, the public should ensure that lawmakers’ probe of Ms. Duterte’s questionable confidential funds will lead to the filing of criminal and administrative charges, they said.

“If the President’s allies in Congress will pursue their plan of impeaching the Vice-President, they are already pressed for time since the mid-term elections are just around the corner,” said Dennis C. Coronacion, chair of the Political Science department at the University of Sto. Tomas.

“They have no choice but to temporarily suspend their plan and hope that they will remain as the majority after the elections,” he said in a Facebook Messenger chat.

Impeachment talks have gained ground in Congress amid lawmakers’ probe of Ms. Duterte’s confidential funds at the Office of the Vice-President and the Department of Education, which she led for about two years under the Marcos administration.

Under the 1987 Constitution, Impeachable offenses include “culpable violation of the Constitution, treason, bribery, graft and corruption, other high crimes, or betrayal of public trust.”

Possible grounds being cited by lawmakers from the Makabayan bloc, which plans to file the case against Ms. Duterte before the year ends, include betrayal of public trust, bribery, and plunder.

Charges to be filed by the bloc would probably include “high crimes” due to Ms. Duterte’s kill remarks against Mr. Marcos, his wife, and House Speaker Martin G. Romualdez, Bagong Alyansang Makabayan (Bayan) chairperson Teodoro A. Casiño told OneNews Channel on Friday.

Since 2000, there have been four public officials impeached from public office, including former President Joseph E. Estrada, who was ousted in a people power uprising in 2001 after a lengthy impeachment trial in Congress.

President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. last week confirmed that the circulating text message discouraging Congress from pursuing impeachment raps against Ms. Duterte was a leaked private message.

Impeachment plans would “not make a difference to even one single Filipino life,” he said. “So, why waste time on it?”

Mr. Coronacion said Mr. Marcos was sending a clear signal to his allies in Congress that “he is not interested in impeaching the Vice-President.”

An impeachment complaint against Ms. Carpio would likely derail the policies being discussed by the Marcos administration, Edmund Tayao, president of Political Economic Elemental Researchers and Strategists, said.

“It will be affected because the legislature’s time and attention will be focused on impeachment, so much so that much-needed new laws and programs that require legislation will be set aside,” he said in a Viber message.

PEACEMAKER, STRONG LEADER
“By telling his allies at the House of Reps to stand down, he is trying to project an image of a peacemaker and a strong leader.”

Under the post-dictatorship charter, impeachable officials include the President, the Vice-President, members of the Supreme Court, members of the Constitutional Commissions, and the Ombudsman.

If an impeachment complaint does not prosper, a second complaint cannot be filed within the same year.

After making a conciliatory gesture, the President has left the decision to Ms. Duterte “whether the conflict will continue and run the risk of getting blamed by the Filipinos should the conflict escalate and get out of hand,” Mr. Coronacion said.

Arjan P. Aguirre, who teaches political science at the Ateneo de Manila University, said impeachment efforts are likely to continue despite the President’s pronouncement, with minority legislators taking the lead.

Administration lawmakers would likely distance themselves from efforts to impeach Ms. Carpio to give the veneer that the sitting government is not behind it, analysts said.

“The administration is open to the idea of impeachment. It’s just that they should not appear as the orchestrator or leading the move,” Mr. Aguirre said in a Facebook Messenger chat.

“The minority will try their best to make the first move of filing an impeachment complaint for them to be part of setting the agenda and scope of the case against Ms. Carpio,” he added.

Mr. Marcos’ remarks have gained the ire of the Makabayan bloc, which said that the Congress is not a rubber stamp of the Executive branch.

His pronouncements about impeachment talks are a “brazen attempt to influence Congress,” according to the opposition bloc, which earlier said the lower chamber has enough numbers to impeach Ms. Duterte and send the complaint to the Senate.

“Assuming that the Dutertes are in a self-destructive and aggressive path, a direct confrontation like an impeachment might lend more gravitas to the Duterte’s image as underdogs being persecuted,” said Antonio Lawrence Borja, a political science professor at the De La Salle University.

“The results of the 2025 elections will determine the probability of success or failure for an impeachment case against Sara Duterte not only in terms of her power in the house, but also as a way of verifying whether they are still as popular as before,” he said in a Facebook Messenger chat.

He said Mr. Marcos’ remarks on the impeachment talks were “a gesture that dismisses the drama of power struggles in favor of his ‘trabaho muna (work first)’ approach to public affairs.”

“It’s an anti-political projection if spectators will equate politics itself with the Duterte drama.”

CRIMINAL PROSECUTION
Antonio P. Contreras, a political scientist from the University of the Philippines Los Baños, said instead of focusing on impeachment, “we should focus on criminally prosecuting the Dutertes.”

“People who think that a criminal prosecution is less powerful than an impeachment are not realizing that an impeachment conviction can only remove Sara Duterte from office and perpetually bar her from public office, while a criminal conviction can do these and more,” he said in a Facebook post.

“It can lead to her doing time in jail.”

“So, those who say that BBM (the President) is again showing signs of weakness for advising Congress not to go through the impeachment route are not actually getting it.”

In the Philippines, it is the Senate that has sole power to try and decide all impeachment cases.

Mr. Coronacion said a possible impeachment case may not smoothly sail in the upper chamber since senators are elected at large.

“The reelectionists do not want to antagonize the former president since he can help them win in Mindanao.”

The Senate’s current composition and explicit allegiances “might mask a more complicated navigation and realignment of loyalties,” Mr. Borja said.

Mr. Coronacion urged lawmakers to not prolong their probe and push for the filing of criminal charges.

Maria Ela L. Atienza said in a Viber message that the President’s message could indicate the administration is gauging if they have the numbers, particularly in the Senate which includes Duterte loyalists.

Anthony Lawrence A. Borja, an associate political science professor at De La Salle University, likewise said in a Facebook chat that he sees the President’s statement as an attempt to “build a stronger case.”