Sea tensions may worsen amid China pressure

TENSIONS in the South China Sea would likely increase during Philippine President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr.’s second year in office, political analysts said on Monday, as China seeks Philippine allies to pressure the government to soften its defense posture with the West.

“China will pressure President Marcos to back off his policy of increased security operations and bold transparency in the West Philippine Sea,” Raymond Michael Powell, a fellow at the Stanford University’s Gordian Knot Center for National Security Innovation, said in an e-mail, referring to areas of the South China within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone.

“Tactically, Beijing is looking for allies within Philippine society whom it views as more sympathetic, such as when it recently gave former President Rodrigo R. Duterte a personal audience with Xi Jinping in Beijing,” he said. “By doing so, China hopes to divide Filipino opinion as a means of bringing Manila back to a quieter and more acquiescent security posture.”

In their meeting, Chinese President Xi Jinping told Mr. Duterte to continue promoting cooperation between the two countries.

The two countries’ relations cooled after Mr. Duterte’s successor pursued closer ties with Washington, which has vowed to defend the Philippines in case of an attack on Philippine vessels in the South China Sea.   

“President Marcos has increased his leverage in dealing with Beijing by reaching out to a wide variety of traditional and evolving security partners,” Mr. Powell said. “With their strong and vocal backing, he should be able to resist making concessions to Beijing on the West Philippine Sea issue.”

Aaron Jed Rabena, a research fellow at the Asia-Pacific Pathways to Progress, said the Marcos government should also watch out for escalating conflict in Ukraine that would involve the US-led North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

“It is also a scenario that should not be discounted,” he said via Messenger chat.   

Experts have said Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — considered as the greatest upheaval in Europe since World War II — might affect Washington’s commitment to deter authoritarian threats in the Indo-Pacific region, which has witnessed China’s increasing assertiveness at sea.

There are also tensions over China’s conflict with self-ruled Taiwan, which it claims as its own.

“A NATO country may be directly or indirectly attacked by Russia and NATO may decide to launch a preemptive strike against Russia to prevent further offensives in Europe,” Mr. Rabena said. “History would tell you that accidents and miscalculations have either led to war or escalation of conflicts.”

Early in his term, Mr. Marcos Jr. had cited the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on the Philippines’ food and energy security.

“There’s also Russia making threats to use nukes against Ukraine or other powers who will intervene in its war,” Mr. Rabena said.

“The Philippines is a net importing country, meaning our reliance on imports for development is critical,” said Don Mclain Gill, a geopolitical analyst who teaches foreign relations at De La Salle University in Manila, noting that supply chain disruptions caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict “have significantly challenged our developmental interests be it in food or energy security.”

China is the Philippines’ largest tradepartner, with their total trade amounting to $3.01 billion in April, according to the local statistics agency. Manila’s exports to China reached $772.47 million in the same month, while its imports from Beijing hit $2.26 billion

“The growing interdependence of the world today creates more challenges for countries like the Philippines to separate economics from geopolitics,” he said. “This is where the China factor comes in.” — Kyle Aristophere T. Atienza