THE Women鈥檚 National Basketball Association (WNBA) is hurtling toward a potential lockout or strike with pay talks deadlocked ahead of Sunday鈥檚 deadline over the players鈥 push for a bigger share of the league鈥檚 explosive growth in revenue.

The current Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) was due to expire on Oct. 31, but has been extended to Nov. 30. However, a deal appears increasingly unlikely, raising the prospect of a work stoppage that could disrupt the 2026 season.

鈥淭hey鈥檒l probably do another extension, yet if we get to the New Year without an agreement a strike becomes a realistic option,鈥 Daniel Kelly II, an associate dean and professor at New York University who specializes in sports law, said in an interview on Wednesday.

鈥淗istorically, that has led to the best deal for players. For the NBA, the 50-50 deal came after the strike in 2011-12. It almost seems like you have to push to the edge to get the deal you want,鈥 he added.

According to local media reports, the league has proposed increasing the maximum salary from $250,000 to $1.1 million, raising the average player salary to more than $460,000 and increasing the minimum salary to $220,000.

However, WNBA players want more than just salary increases. They believe they should follow the NBA鈥檚 path, which began with their first CBA in 1970 and by 2011 had negotiated a 50-50 split of basketball-related income.

鈥淧layers are pushing for revenue-sharing arrangements similar to those in men鈥檚 professional leagues, rather than fixed salary increases that don鈥檛 keep pace with the WNBA鈥檚 growth in media deals and team valuations,鈥 Kelly said. 鈥淭he business is growing exponentially, yet they want the players salaries to increase at a fixed amount.鈥

COMPLEX OWNERSHIP AND RIVAL LEAGUES ADD PRESSURE
The ownership structure adds a layer of complexity to the discussion. The NBA itself owns 42% of the WNBA, while team owners hold another 42% and a private equity group controls the remaining 16%.

鈥淎s the WNBA鈥檚 commissioner, Cathy Engelbert represents three groups. She has multiple stakeholders to answer to in different capacities when negotiating against the players鈥 union,鈥 Kelly said, noting that it makes negotiations far more difficult than simple two-party bargaining.

Rival leagues dangling eye-popping paychecks further complicate matters. Unrivaled, a 3-on-3 basketball league which began its first season in January, reported an average salary of $222,222, which included amenities such as on-site childcare.

Even more threatening is Project B, which plans to launch next fall with men鈥檚 and women鈥檚 5-on-5 basketball and is reportedly offering salaries up to $2 million. It has signed WNBA players union (WNBPA) president Nneka Ogwumike, along with big names like Alyssa Thomas and Sophie Cunningham.

鈥淒o we know if these new leagues can sustain those salaries? We don鈥檛 because they haven鈥檛 been around for multiple seasons. However it gives players leverage to say to the league: you鈥檙e not the only option,鈥 Kelly added.

He recommended a hybrid model that maintains minimum and maximum salaries but includes guaranteed revenue-sharing percentages that grow with the business. 鈥 Reuters