SEIPI sees 0% export growth as still possible after 4% fall at end of Sept.

THE Semiconductor and Electronics Industries in the Philippines Foundation, Inc. (SEIPI) said the industry’s exports could still rally in the fourth quarter to bring 2023 growth to the forecast level of 0%, after shipments declined 4% in the first nine months.

“As you know, we were clobbered in the first quarter; we contracted 15%. We recovered in quarter two, where the deficit was reduced to -7% and now in the third quarter, it’s around -4%,” SEIPI President Danilo C. Lachica said in chance remarks to reporters.

“I just saw the end-of-September numbers. It is around -4%, but the good news is, we’re looking at a very positive fourth quarter,” he added.

SEIPI reported that electronics exports in the year to September totaled $33.75 billion, representing a 4.37% decline year on year.

In September, electronics exports were valued at $4.4 billion, down 9.13% from a year earlier.

However, electronics exports rose 4.64% month on month.

In August, Mr. Lachica said that SEIPI downgraded its 2023 export growth forecast to 0% from 5% after they declined 6% in the first six months.

“So, if you recall, we had a 5% projection for 2023 which we revised to flat and it’s still doable. And you know, flat isn’t necessarily bad given the condition of the global economy, the wars, trade tensions, and the threat of recession,” he said.

“We clocked in at $49 billion last year and this year it’s still the biggest commodity export, 62% in fact. However, there’s some global conditions that we have (to account for),” he added.

In September, total Philippine exports amounted to $6.73 billion, of which 65.44% were electronics, SEIPI said.

Asked what the growth drivers will be, he said: “Obviously, automotive electronics, commercial, and semiconductors and components, which is 70% of our exports. The overall outlook is so bleak.” — Justine Irish D. Tabile