China’s high-seas game of chicken is backfiring

By Karishma Vaswani

CHINA’s military has long been accused of reckless behavior in the air and at sea. collision between two of its vessels in the South China Sea underscores how a single miscalculation could spark a wider conflict.

At stake is the stability of the Indo-Pacific, a strategically important region for the US, where several of its partners, including Japan, the Philippines, and Australia, are increasingly exposed to Beijing’s risky maneuvers.

The latest incident is part of a broader pattern of behavior, especially in the areas China says it owns. Video of last Monday’s shows a Chinese coast guard ship firing water cannons as it chased a Philippine coast guard vessel, before slamming into one of its own warships. Despite the evidence, for the accident, accusing it of deliberately “intruding” into its waters.

China’s strategy of pushing boundaries is also about testing American resolve. The US and the Philippines are , with Washington legally obligated to defend Manila if attacked. By escalating encounters at sea just to the brink of confrontation, Beijing is probing whether Washington will stand by that commitment.

China’s repeated harassment of Philippine vessels comes despite a 2016 arbitration ruling in The Hague that the Philippines, declaring Beijing’s historical assertions baseless. China claims more than , and refuses to acknowledge the competing stakes of other Southeast Asian nations.

This assertiveness isn’t limited to the sea. Beijing toward self-ruled Taiwan, which it claims as its own. One of the most recent high-profile incursions took place in June after US lawmakers visited a top Taiwanese military figure on the island. The tactic appears to have two goals in mind: Exhaust Taipei’s pilots, but also to normalize China’s military presence. 

It’s also about checking how far Washington would go to defend Taiwan in a crisis. Under President Donald Trump, there’s been the US would step in if it were attacked.

Key allies Japan and Australia have felt heightened pressure, too. In July, Tokyo expressed serious concerns after a Chinese fighter bomber flew within 30 meters of one of its surveillance planes over the East China Sea. Beijing as “justified” and “professional.” In February, Australia was forced to issue aviation warnings when Chinese naval vessels off its coast, followed by similar drills near the next day.

Individually, Beijing can dismiss these incidents as isolated, and insist that it’s doing nothing wrong. Combined, they reveal a broader pattern — a calculated strategy to assert dominance while stopping short of outright war, as the noted in a 2024 report.

China views these actions as a continuation of politics rather than warfare, deliberately keeping them below the threshold of open conflict, the report added. This allows Beijing to secure economic resources in disputed territories, while limiting the ability of other countries to do the same. 

Some recent moves from Washington have been reassuring. Last Wednesday, the US to Scarborough Shoal, the site of the collision, in an apparent show of support. Beijing one of the American ships that entered its territorial waters, while Washington as legal under international law.

Such freedom-of-navigation operations must continue in the face of China’s expanding claims, even at the risk of further Beijing. Equally important is consistently raising awareness about its destabilizing actions, challenging the narrative of ownership. 

These incidents can’t be shrugged off as routine. Left unchecked, the dangers of a miscalculation will only grow in China’s high-seas game of chicken. One wrong move could ignite a much wider crisis.

BLOOMBERG OPINION