Nintendo’s Switch 2 has the handheld market all to itself

By Dave Lee

EIGHT YEARS since the launch of Nintendo Co.’s original Switch, the new console is finally here, in stores Thursday and online Friday. To greet the Switch 2, the return of what I feel is a much-missed staple, there was a frenzied midnight launch. The Guardian:

“The sight of throngs of gamers looking to get their hands on the latest hardware when the clock strikes 12 is growing increasingly rare. But if you happen to walk by a Smyths toy shop at midnight on 4 June, you may encounter a blast from the past: excitable people, most in their teens or 20s, possibly discussing Mario Kart. They will be waiting to buy the Nintendo Switch 2, the first major games console launch since 2020 and potentially the biggest of all time.”

When the first Switch hit the market in 2017, rival console makers paid little attention. Nintendo was the walking wounded, reeling off the back of a highly disappointing Wii U, which sold a mere 13.6 million units, an extreme disappointment after 100 million in sales of the groundbreaking Wii. Its choice to separate from the pack, to not create a traditional home console to compete with Microsoft Corp.’s Xbox and Sony Group Corp.’s PlayStation, was seen as an admission of having fallen behind.

The device lacked technical capability and had a massive reliance on games Nintendo itself would need to make. Yet, as with the GameBoy all those years ago, weaker hardware compared to its competitors mattered little when the games were so smart and joyful. The company has sold more than 150 million Switch consoles globally, proving the form factor — a high-end mobile gaming device that could be played on TV if you wanted — hit a sweet spot.

You’d think, then, that competitors would be ready to pounce, but no. This time around its challengers are Sony, Microsoft, Valve, and, possibly, Apple Inc. At least, in theory: Despite being given the best part of a decade to think about it, none of Nintendo’s would-be competitors seem to have figured out exactly how to take it on.

Sony’s most recent foray into handhelds was the PlayStation Portal, which only worked if you also had access to a PlayStation 5 to stream your games from. A more direct Switch-like handheld is , but reportedly won’t arrive until the launch of the PlayStation 6 — meaning 2027 or later.

Microsoft, whose latest Xbox consoles have been heavily outsold by the PlayStation, is reported to have a partnership with manufacturer ASUS that will see an Xbox-branded device launched this year. It will essentially be a portable way to play PC games, making it more of a competitor against Valve’s Steam Deck, a handheld that runs titles available on the Steam platform. So far, this PC-gaming-on-the-move market is small. The Steam Deck, plus a small number of other variants on the theme, have sold a combined 6 million over the past three years, market research group IDC. This sector could be helped by , where you pay a fee to remotely play a much more powerful computer than the one in your hand, but I don’t see that becoming a mainstream demand any time soon.

The ASUS-Microsoft device, the influential news site Windows Central, will serve as a “research experience for Microsoft.” The site adds that a wholly Microsoft-designed Xbox handheld isn’t likely until 2027 at the earliest, if it happens at all.

It means the Switch 2 has the handheld market to itself for the foreseeable future — unless there’s a wildcard in the form of Apple. At this week’s World Wide Developers Conference, the company is launch a standalone gaming app that will be pre-installed across its products. Apple already has an “Arcade” subscription offer but it’s not yet seen as a destination for serious gamers. That could change if the firm decides to make high-end games and investment its focus. Games companies have traditionally not enjoyed building games for Apple’s platforms, but the lure of being available on well over 2 billion active devices might be a powerful incentive.

While that plays out, Nintendo predicts it could sell as many as 20 million Switch 2 consoles by March next year, if it can make them . Other potential hazards include uncertainties around pricing in the wake of President Donald J. Trump’s tariff yo-yoing, and the question of whether gamers might baulk at the increased cost of . as the launch date drew near was the fact Nintendo did not, as is the long-established norm, send out consoles to gaming publications for review, saying that “important features and updates” would be made available on launch day. Many are taking that as an indication that engineers are working furiously to get its software ready for primetime.

One might question how much reviews matter, though. The New York Times the Switch to be “mediocre” and “so-so on the go.” Nobody is daring to write off the strategy now. And yet, the biggest sales competitor to the Switch 2 will be the Switch 1, which is only around 10 million units shy of overtaking the PlayStation 2 as the biggest-selling games console of all time. — Bloomberg Opinion