Trump’s phone call with Putin is causing a stir in Taiwan

ONE PHONE CALL does not a treaty make, but President Donald Trump’s with Russia’s Vladimir Putin on ending the war in Ukraine is worrying Taiwan. China will watch developments for any hint on whether a resolution spells a similar future for the self-ruled island Beijing claims as its own.

Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te’s government should consider what it can offer Trump to avoid becoming a pawn in the US-China rivalry. It’s a delicate balance: Appeasing the US leader doesn’t only mean figuring out what he wants, but interpreting how American policy toward the island might be changing.

The US State Department language on its recently to remove a line that stated: “We do not support Taiwan independence.” The last time the fact sheet cut the sentence was in May 2022, under former President Joe Biden’s administration. It was reinstated about a month later, following protests from China.

Figuring out what Trump wants is a lesson Ukraine’s is learning in real time. The phone call between the US and Russian leaders last week upended years of American policy, with some describing it as a sellout, and accusing the US leader of giving in to Russia’s key demands even before negotiations have begun. Trump spoke to Zelenskiy too, but notably, only after Putin.

For the US president, it’s simple — it’s partly about money. Estimates from show that protecting Ukraine and expanding their own militaries could cost Europe’s major powers an additional $3.1 trillion over the next 10 years, a cost the Trump administration no longer seems willing to help bear. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine , the US has committed approximately $56.3 billion in security assistance. Trump has also previously that he wants to recoup the money Washington has spent on the conflict by securing $500 billion in from Ukraine.

Ukraine provides a useful foil for Taiwan. Taipei is also dealing with the threat of a mightier power on its doorstep — one that has consistently talked about unifying with it, by force if necessary. The island’s leaders have been vocal in their support for Ukraine, but also used it to convince their own voters that they can’t afford to be complacent in the face of Chinese aggression. Beijing has been a record number of warplanes across a US-drawn boundary in the Taiwan Strait, and launched in the waters around the island. That’s prompted Taipei to announce increases in army spending, and military service for eligible males.

For decades, Taiwan has been dependent on American defense equipment, deterrence, and diplomacy, and has needed Washington’s policy of “” to maintain the status quo. This was designed to signal to Beijing that if there was an unprovoked attack, America would get involved. Biden had on more than one occasion that the US would come to Taipei’s defense.

Under Trump, there are no such assurances. , a venture investor and a director of US Taiwan Watch, told me that any agreement with Putin over Ukraine highlights how the president sees himself first and foremost: as a dealmaker. “There’s a lot of anxiety in Taiwan about what to cram into the gift package being offered to Trump,” Yeh told me. “There will always be the possibility it’s on the table for a deal with China, and this is something President Lai Ching-te needs to take a realistic look at, in terms of how to deal with the president.”

Domestically, Lai’s got a full plate. The three political parties are each other for the island’s deepening divisions. The defense budget, in particular, is proving to be problematic, with the China-leaning Kuomintang party blocking increases in spending. Lai has been unable to break through the ceaseless political gridlock, despite Beijing’s growing military actions, and Trump’s to invest more in its own security.

Trump is also unhappy with Taiwan’s record-level trade surplus, and has complained that the island “stole” America’s semiconductor industry. He’s threatened tariffs, insisting future production capacity should be housed in the US.

Taipei is already looking to address the tariffs. In a hastily convened on Friday, Lai said a will be used for military spending, lifting it to above 3% of GDP. He also said the island will expand investment in the US and buy more goods from there. Meanwhile, the deputy economy minister has been forward Taipei’s position to US officials last week. And ’s board met in Arizona for the first time, another sign of its commitment to making chips in the US.

These are important steps, but the island should also make use of its existing friends it has in the Trump cabinet, many who appear strongly supportive of its right to exist. Secretary of State and Secretary of Defense have both publicly stated that their commitment to Taiwan’s defense is non-negotiable.

But whether the president is as committed is unclear. He has dithered over whether he would step in if China were to . , the billionaire leading Trump’s government cost-cutting efforts and a close adviser, has argued Americans shouldn’t be drawn into the conflict.

That we are reduced to a state of global geopolitics where the fate of places like Ukraine and Taiwan are effectively bargaining chips speaks to the transactional times we live in. Trump’s game is clear. Taipei should play the best hand it can.

BLOOMBERG OPINION